Mumbai had 87 Lakh registered Voters in year 2011. Normally, voter turn out for elections is about 45%. This means that about 46 Lakh persons may not be voting at all. This might include non-existent persons, so deducting 10%, we are left with about 42 Lakhs who can be persuaded to vote intelligently. If even 33% finally come out and vote, AAP could get 14 Lakh votes.
An analysis of the last National Parliamentary Election shows that the SIX Mumbai Parliamentary Constituencies are represented by those who together received 15.7 Lakh winning votes (average 2.6 Lakh votes per Constituencies) from about 9,500 polling booths for Mumbai. This is very close to the above number of possible voters, who could be persuaded to vote intelligently instead of sitting out the election process. Thus our Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) must work to garner about 2.6 Lakh votes from about 1,600 polling booths, per Parliamentary Constituency.
Currently, our 16 Zones of Mumbai must increase their footprint by Voter Registration so that the next election will galvanize 15.7 Citizens to vote for AAP. It seems each Zone must spread message to about 1.0 Lakh registered voters. The work done by JNM in the past city elections, indicates that the voter:volunteer ratio is about 50. Using this ratio, it seems each Zone must have 2,000 registered Volunteers servicing about 590 polling booths. These must on the last day pull in 2,000 Supporters.
These 4,000 Volunteers & Supporters per Zone must be deployed for the following activities come election week and before:
Polling Booth Volunteer = 2 x 590 = 1,180 .
Polling Desk Supporters = 3 x 590 = 1,770.
Tail Twisters for Voters = 1.4 x 590 = 826 (both Volunteers and Supporters).
Voter Contact Vlntrs (before election day) = 1000 (5 days x 55 per day) This to be done twice.
Election Process Admin Volunteers = 50 (Muni Offices, RO, Police Stn, Complaints, Letters)
Election Process Support = 50 (same as above)
Voter Education Volunteers = 100 (talks at 300 meets in 15 days, 5 Vlntrs x 20 simultaneous meets)
Material Distribution to be done by Voter Contact Vlntrs.
Total: 1180+600+50+50+100 = 1,980 Volunteers, 1770+226 = 1,996 Supporters. In addition to the above, some 200 key central IAC-Mumbai Volunteers will be needed to: plan, budget, monitor, administer, counter the political process. These will have to be representatives from the current 16 Zones. Further, each Zone must have a minimum of 50 contacts to: plan, monitor, administer and counter the process.
The five Zonal Coordinators per Zone and six Central Coordinators (from among them), must understand this plan and work to reach the needed goals. Weekly meetings to encourage the Zonal Volunteers to internalize this plan and to work selflessly for it is the need for the next one year before elections come close. Frequent meetings with possible voters, visits to the housing complexes and buildings, engaging some slums and shops, all these tools are needed to ensure ONE LAKH votes for AAP per Zone. The work by JNM in the past years, leads the belief that this target is achievable with consistent and persistent work, done selflessly in national interest. The current month of October has established that all the main existing Political Parties are together on one side and its the Citizens on the other. These Citizens are the Voters who must be informed to act in their own interest.
This is a draft and will be revised next month or early December when the AAP is formed.